US-China war now | The Manila Times

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IF Defense Secretary Gilberto “Gibo” Teodoro Jr.’s current moves were to be the gauge, then Taiwan will have to erupt in its destined flash point sooner than we think.

First, in May, no less than Teodoro led the raid on the Sanjia Steel Corp. inside the 3,000-hectare Philippine Veterans Investment and Development Corp. (Phividec) industrial estate in Misamis Oriental. A year before that, the Pentagon had already decided on the Phividec estate as the site for its planned establishment of a giant fuel hub capable of storing 41 trillion barrels of oil daily for the use of the United States Navy Indo-Pacific Command (Indopacom). Together with the fuel hub is a similar huge establishment of US naval facilities and munitions manufacturing. Then following is the disclosure of the 121-page report of current Indopacom Commander Samuel Paparo submitted to Congress, asking for channeling a huge portion of the $1.5-trillion Trump allotment for military expenditures to manufacture low-cost “quick-sink kits” capable of hitting enemy ships’ keel. The report admits China has outnumbered US vessels capacity 430-291, and the idea of equalizing the discrepancy is no longer constructing naval ships but increasing destructive capabilities, which the proposed “quick-sink” kits are.

On Aug. 3–6, 2026, the 37th annual International Military Law and Operations conference in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, was co-keynote hosted by Secretary Teodoro and Admiral Paparo, in which they shared the paramount concern about deterring China’s dominance in the region.

Then the virtual ratatat by Teodoro: the cleverly-scripted “note passing scenario” at the Seoul Defense Forum, the P80-million port construction at the 7-hectare zero-population, zero-development Lawak Island far out in the South China Sea, and the stupendous Teodoro announcement at the 3rd Balangay Forum held in Makati on Sept. 17, 2026, to expand the Philippine Navy into an “expeditionary navy.”

All these developments compose one single element: preparation for war.

But in each of the cited developments, what are involved are long-term works whose usefulness is in a far perceivable future.

For instance, as of 2026, no completion date is defined for the proposed 300-hectare US naval complex at the Phividec industrial estate.

And particularly striking is the fact that going expeditionary navy, the latest of Teodoro’s braggadocio, necessarily takes at least a decade.

This means that for the Philippines readiness for war won’t come about until after 10 years. Such must be true, particularly for the US, which calls the ultimate shots.

What do all the above indicate?

That the US won’t be ready to war with China until after 10 years.

And yet for the US, such is unthinkable.

The US is deeply in mess with Iran in the Middle East, and there are no indications that it will get out of the trouble in the short run. It direly needs the billions of dollars ready for the taking from Taiwan through their pending arms deal. The only kink hampering that deal is the objection of China. This is to be expected since against who else would Taiwan use those arms but China?

So, no way for the US to get its arms deal with Taiwan done but by forcing it through China.

And that means war, not in the far future but now.

Why then, as Teodoro consistently indicates, make preparations for war that is yet long to come?

Well, Teodoro has not been appointed to the post of defense secretary twice for nothing.

That he stays in that post only proves he is in the good graces with the real appointing power in the security sector — America.

Everything he does is for the betterment of the US position in its antagonism with China.

Making America appear weak, when in fact it is strong, not ready for war when in fact it can deliver the effective strike anytime it so wishes.

Teodoro has been the effective decoy for America’s real war readiness.

To this column, Teodoro’s moves bring back memories of Operation Overlord, the code name for the covert Allied strategy of retaking France from Nazi occupation in World War II.

All indications were that the allies landing would be at Pas-de-Calais, the nearest point in France across the English Channel. Among the many ploys employed by the allies aside from visible troops and facilities deployment were radio messages deliberately meant for Nazi interception and always identifying Pas-de-Calais as the site of the Allied landing.

Accordingly, all Nazi preparations were geared for the defense of Pas-de-Calais.

But then comes June 6, 1944, the real D-Day. Thousands of Allied paratroopers drop — not at Pas-de-Calais but in Normandy, which turns out to be the real site for the retaking of France, without any Nazi resistance.

From that point onward, the Nazi forces were on retreat back to Germany, culminating in ultimate surrender.

The point being driven here is that Teodoro’s obviously intended media splurge is a decoy for drawing attention away from what is already a US readiness to war with China now.

The recent visit of President Xi Jinping to Washington betrayed a desperation on China’s end to pursue what still could be achieved diplomatically in averting the ultimate catastrophe that could result from a final outburst of the Taiwan flash point. President Trump’s body language betrayed that he was not listening but was sticking to a resolve earlier already reached on the issue.

Notice how Trump was inwardly squeamish from some private shenanigan he was nursing inside while Xi was making a last-ditch attempt to convince him of his oft-repeated imploration that both the US and China would gain from cooperation but lose from confrontation.

But the smirk on Trump’s face betrayed he was actually into one more Operation Overlord.

As Sun Tzu puts it: “Make your plans be as dark as night. And when you move, strike like thunder.”